Politics·Analysis
If you want to understand the federal parties' campaign strategies, it helps tofollow the leader.
NDP, Bloc Québécois leaders turned defensive in final stretch
Philip Ling, Ian Froese · CBC News
·
If you want to have a sense of the federal parties' campaign strategies, it helps tofollow the leader.
An individual announcementin one riding might not indicate much, but taking a wider view reveals patterns in a party's plan of attack.
CBC News analyzed the whereabouts of the main party leaders and every event they held over the course of the 36-day campaign.They held 419campaign events in 148 ridings from coast to coast.
On the eve of Monday's vote, here arefive things that stood outabout the leaders' tours.
NDP's campaign flip
The NDPwas eventually forced to flipfroman offensive campaign, a strategy in which the party was looking to add seats, to a defensive one — and the change was stark.
In the first three weeks of the campaign, 78 per cent ofNDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's visits were to non-NDP-held ridings— the highestpercentage among the four main party leaders.
But after the debates, the party entered save-the-furniture mode. It couldn't shake polling that suggested the party was on the verge of losing official status, which requires 12 seats.
Sixty-two per cent of Singh's visits in the campaign'sfinal stretch were to ridingsheld bytheNDP.
Tari Ajadi, an assistant political science professor atMcGill University, argues the New Democratshad theirchanceto make inroads before the election was called.
He said the NDP should have moved to a defensive posture earlier in the campaign, once its struggle to pick up support was becoming clear.
Conservatives stay the course
The Conservatives needLiberal ridings in order to have any shot at forming government, andPierrePoilievre's itinerarybears this out.
More than three-quarters of Poilievre'sstopshave been to ridings the Conservatives would like to carry.
Of those visits, 80 per cent were trips to Liberal-held seats.
"For them tobe able to form government, they need to be aggressive and they need to win seats in places like the GTA. They need to win seats in Quebec. They need to win seats in Atlantic Canada," Ajadi said.
Liberals focused on making gains
The Liberals helda "tentative"lead in the early stretchof the campaign, Ajadi said, because itwasn't clear if the party's resurgence under new leader Mark Carney had staying power.
As such, Carney spent a majority of his first stops— 57 per cent— inridings the party held at dissolution, but "after the debate, what I think we see is a firming up of that Liberal support," Ajadi said.
The party startedprioritizingnon-incumbent ridings, which became 62per cent of the leader's remaining visits, up from 43 per cent.
Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor, said the Liberals and Conservatives mounted aggressive campaigns because they needed to.
She added the frequency in which the Liberals visitedtheir own ridings is partially a function of the party having more seats than its rivals.
BlanchetprotectingBloc seats
The Bloc Québécoisjoined the NDPin spending most of its last week shoring up support in seats that were once safe bets.
The party was deploying a half-offensive, half-defensive strategy, but since the debate,85 per cent of leader Yves-François Blanchet's appearances have been in Bloc-blueridings, including a number ofreturn visits.
Ajadi saidBlanchet is one of the mainpeoplestanding in the way of Liberal hopes for a majority government.
In the last 10 days, Blanchet visited eight ridings at least twice, including multiple appearances to battleground Bloc-held seatsThérèse-De Blainville and Longueuil-Saint-Hubert.
"If the Bloc wins those ridings thenitmight be more likely that the Liberals end up winning a minority," Ajadi said.
For his part,Blanchet has denied that he's just clingingto the seats he already has.
"I'm not playing defence —that's your analysis, not mine," he's told reporters.
- With 2 days left to go, Blanchet has spent most of his campaign in Bloc-blue ridings
Repeat visits show tight races
The NDP's Jagmeet Singh was a familiar face in a number of ridings.
He made at least three stops in nine ridings, including four visits to Vancouver Kingsway, a stronghold the NDPhas won handily in the past but is believed to be hotly contested in this election.
Singh has also stopped in Burnaby Central, his own riding, four times. Polling suggests the NDP's grasp on theseat is tenuous.
- Vancouver tragedy casts a pall on final day of election campaign
- The economy, housing, pipelines: Not all claims in the federal election campaign were true
These regular visits from Singh show"they can't afford to lose those" seats,Miljansaid, but italso demonstrates the party has a smaller war chest and cannot afford to criss-crossthe countryat the paceof the Liberals or Conservatives.
For comparison's sake, the Conservatives only visited two ridings at least threetimes: Carleton, Poilievre'sseat in Ontario, and the Liberal riding of Surrey Newton in B.C.
Meanwhile, the Liberals only exceeded two visits atone location:Laurier—Sainte-Marie in downtown Montreal.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices·
About CBC NewsCorrections and clarifications·Submit a news tip·
